Guides, strategies, and analysis for Polymarket prediction markets. Learn to trade smarter.
What $20, $100 and $500 actually get you, what fees and spread cost in 2026, and how much you need before the returns are worth your time.
The ten most expensive mistakes new traders make — from market orders in thin markets to ignoring resolution criteria — and how to avoid each one.
A straight verdict: who prediction markets are for, who should stay away, and what the realistic economics look like after the 2026 fee changes.
You never have to sell — markets resolve automatically. How resolution and the UMA oracle work, when to sell early instead, and the edge cases to know.
Concrete sizing rules: the 1–5% rule, fractional Kelly with worked examples, correlated-position traps, and drawdown limits that keep you in the game.
Learn how prediction markets work, how Polymarket uses USDC and AMM-based pricing, how probabilities translate to prices, and how to place your first trade step by step.
Evidence-based trading strategies: fading overreactions, late arbitrage before resolution, long-tail event pricing, information edge in niche domains, and liquidity provision with CLOB.
A detailed comparison of the major prediction market platforms - Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and PredictIt - covering fees, liquidity, geography restrictions, and best use cases.